Table 1

Model selection results from the AIC analysis investigating the importance of environmental and population data on the prevalence of new malaria cases between 1917 and 1918.

Model factors

K

AIC-value

Δ-value

MTW

2

213.2

3.7

MTW + APET

3

210.6

1.1

MTW + APET + LnP

4

209.5

0

Presented are those models, of the 32 considered, that (1) had a Δ-value < 6 (defined as the AIC-value of the model minus the smallest of all models) and (2) were not more complicated versions of models having a lower AIC-value. Model factors are abbreviated as: mean temperature during the warmest month (MTW), wetness (APET), and log population density (LnP).

Lindsay et al. Malaria Journal 2010 9:70   doi:10.1186/1475-2875-9-70