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A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010

Peter W Gething1*, Anand P Patil1, David L Smith23, Carlos A Guerra1, Iqbal RF Elyazar4, Geoffrey L Johnston56, Andrew J Tatem27 and Simon I Hay12*

Author Affiliations

1 Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Tinbergen Building, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK

2 Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA

3 Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA

4 Eijkman-Oxford Clinical Research Unit, Jalan Diponegoro No. 69, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia

5 School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, 420 West 118th St, New York, USA

6 Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, New York, NY 10032, USA

7 Department of Geography and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA

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Malaria Journal 2011, 10:378  doi:10.1186/1475-2875-10-378

Published: 20 December 2011

Abstract

Background

Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR).

Methods

Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty.

Results

An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission.

Conclusions

The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.