Table 2 |
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|
The expected waiting time (in years) to elimination starting from PfPR = 1%. |
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|
Population size |
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|
Basic reproductive number under control (RC) |
H = 103 |
H = 104 |
H = 105 |
H = 106 |
|
|
||||
|
0.00 |
2.5 |
3.8 |
5.0 |
6.3 |
|
0.05 |
2.7 |
4.0 |
5.3 |
6.6 |
|
0.10 |
2.8 |
4.2 |
5.6 |
7.0 |
|
0.15 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
5.9 |
7.4 |
|
0.20 |
3.2 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
7.9 |
|
0.25 |
3.4 |
5.0 |
6.7 |
8.4 |
|
0.30 |
3.6 |
5.4 |
7.2 |
9.0 |
|
0.35 |
3.9 |
5.8 |
7.8 |
9.7 |
|
0.40 |
4.2 |
6.3 |
8.4 |
10.5 |
|
0.45 |
4.6 |
6.9 |
9.2 |
11.5 |
|
0.50 |
5.0 |
7.6 |
10.1 |
12.6 |
|
0.55 |
5.6 |
8.4 |
11.2 |
14.0 |
|
0.60 |
6.3 |
9.5 |
12.6 |
15.8 |
|
0.65 |
7.2 |
10.8 |
14.4 |
18.0 |
|
0.70 |
8.4 |
12.6 |
16.8 |
21.0 |
|
0.75 |
10.1 |
15.1 |
20.2 |
25.2 |
|
0.80 |
12.6 |
18.9 |
25.2 |
31.5 |
|
0.85 |
16.8 |
25.2 |
33.6 |
42.1 |
|
0.90 |
25.2 |
37.9 |
50.5 |
63.1 |
|
|
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|
The columns represent waiting times for different human population sizes ranging in size from one thousand to one million. The rows show the waiting times for RC values from zero up to 0.9. These values were computed using Eqn. 6, which agrees with the median time to elimination for the simulations when RC = 0.5, but when RC = 0.75, the median extinction times were slightly shorter (Figure 2). |
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|
Smith and Hay Malaria Journal 2009 8:87 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-87 |
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