Table 1 |
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|
Model Parameter Values |
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|
No. |
Disease Parameter |
Estimate |
Source |
|
|
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|
P1 |
Malaria prevalence |
43.1% |
Uzochukwu 2008 [42] |
|
|
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|
P2 |
Febrile outpatients aged ≥ 5 years |
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|
|
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|
P3 |
Proportion of NMFI cases that were bacterial |
10% |
Shillcutt et al. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P4 |
Probability that a NMFI received an antibiotic |
100% |
Uzochukwu 2008 |
|
|
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|
P5 |
RDT sensitivity |
90% |
Uzochukwu 2008, Beadle et. al, 1994, Craig et al., 2002, Bell et. al. 2005 |
|
|
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|
P6 |
Presumptive treatment sensitivity |
100% |
Uzochukwu. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P7 |
Microscopy sensitivity |
82% |
Uzochukwu. 2008, Shillcutt et. al. 2008, Reyburn et al., 2004 |
|
|
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|
P8 |
RDT specificity |
91% |
Uzochukwu. 2008, Mueller et al., 2007 Bell et al. 2005, WHO, 2000 |
|
|
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|
P9 |
Presumptive treatment specificity |
0% |
Uzochukwu. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P10 |
Microscopy specificity |
87% |
Uzochukwu. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P11 |
Probability of adherence -- ACT |
80% |
Uzochukwu. 2008, Depoortere et al., 2004, Fogg et al., 2004 |
|
|
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|
P12 |
Probability of adherence amoxicillin |
80% |
Assumption |
|
|
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|
P13 |
ACT efficacy (for malaria) |
95% |
Uzochukwu. 2008. Shillcutt et. al., 2008, Lefevre et. al., 2001 |
|
|
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|
No |
Disease Parameter |
Estimate |
Source |
|
|
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|
P14 |
Amoxicillin efficacy (for malaria) |
0% |
Assumption |
|
|
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|
P15 |
ACT efficacy (for bacterial infection) |
0% |
Assumption |
|
|
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|
P16 |
Amoxicillin efficacy (for bacterial infection) |
75% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P17 |
ACT efficacy (for viral infection) |
0% |
Assumption |
|
|
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|
P18 |
Amoxicillin efficacy (for viral infection) |
0% |
Assumption |
|
|
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|
Treatment seeking behaviour |
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|
|
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|
P19 |
Outpatient visit at a health centre |
1-P20 |
Shillcutt et.al., 2008 |
|
|
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|
P20 |
Outpatient visit took place in a hospital |
32% |
Shillcutt et.al., 2008 |
|
|
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|
P21 |
Patient with severe illness went to hospital for inpatient care after treatment failure |
48% |
Shillcutt et. al., 2008, McCombie, 1996 |
|
|
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|
P22 |
Patient with uncomplicated illness returned to clinic for outpatient care after treatment failure |
48% |
Shillcutt et.al., 2008 |
|
|
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|
P23 |
Malaria not effectively treated led to severe disease (age ≥ 5) |
1% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P24 |
Malaria not effectively treated led to severe disease (age <5) |
7.50% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
P25 |
Bacterial illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age ≥ 5) |
15% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
P26 |
Bacterial illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age<5) |
30% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P27 |
Viral illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age ≥ 5) |
0% |
Assumption |
|
|
|||
|
P28 |
Viral illness not effectively treated led to severe disease (age<5) |
0% |
Assumption |
|
|
|||
|
P29 |
Severe malaria led to neurological sequelae (age ≥ 5) |
1.50% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P30 |
Severe malaria led to neurological sequelae (age<5) |
3.50% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
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|
P31 |
Severe bacterial infection led to neurological sequelae (age ≥ 5) |
3.80% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
P32 |
Severe bacterial infection led to neurological sequelae (age<5) |
2% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
P33 |
Inpatient with severe malaria attending an inpatient facility died (all ages) |
10% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
P34 |
Inpatient with severe bacterial illness attending an inpatient facility died (all ages) |
15% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
P35 |
Patient with severe malaria that did not return for formal care would die (all ages) |
25% |
Shillcutt et. al. 2008 |
|
|
|||
|
P36 |
Patient with severe bacterial illness that did not return for formal care would die (all ages) |
P35 |
Assumption |
|
|
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|
Uzochukwu et al. Malaria Journal 2009 8:265 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-265 |
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