Research

Use of the slide positivity rate to estimate changes in malaria incidence in a cohort of Ugandan children

Trevor P Jensen¹ , Hasifa Bukirwa² , Denise Njama-Meya³ , Damon Francis¹ , Moses R Kamya³ , Philip J Rosenthal¹ and Grant Dorsey^1,4

¹  Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, USA

²  Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project, Kampala, Uganda

³  Makerere University Medical School, Kampala, Uganda

⁴  San Francisco General Hospital, 1001 Potrero Avenue, Building 30, Room 408 San Francisco, CA 94110, USA

author email corresponding author email

Malaria Journal 2009, 8:213doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-213

Published:	15 September 2009

Abstract

Background

As malaria control efforts intensify, it is critical to monitor trends in disease burden and measure the impact of interventions. A key surveillance indicator is the incidence of malaria. Yet measurement of incidence is challenging. The slide positivity rate (SPR) has been used as a surrogate measure of malaria incidence, but limited data exist on the relationship between SPR and the incidence of malaria.

Methods

A cohort of 690 children aged 1-10 years at enrollment were followed for all their health care needs over a four-year period in Kampala, Uganda. All children with fever underwent laboratory testing, allowing us to measure the incidence of malaria and non-malaria fevers. A formula was derived to estimate relative changes in the incidence of malaria (rΔIm) based on changes in the SPR and the assumption that the incidence of non-malaria fevers was consistent over time. Observed and estimated values of rΔIm were compared over two, six, and 12 month time intervals after restricting the analysis to children contributing observation time between the ages of 4-10 years to control for aging of the cohort.

Results

Over the four-year observation period the incidence of malaria declined significantly from 0.93 episodes per person-year in 2005 to 0.39 episodes per person-year in 2008 (p < 0.0001) and the incidence of non-malaria fevers declined significantly from 2.31 episodes per person-year in 2005 to 1.31 episodes per person-year in 2008 (p < 0.0001). Younger age was associated with a significantly greater incidence of malaria and the incidence of malaria was significantly higher during seasonal peaks occurring each January-February and May-June. Changes in SPR produced reasonably accurate estimates of rΔIm over all time intervals. The average absolute difference in observed and estimated values of rΔIm was lower for six-month intervals (0.13) than it was for two-month (0.21) or 12 month intervals (0.21).

Conclusion

Changes in SPR provided a useful estimate of changes in the incidence of malaria in a well defined cohort; however, a gradual decline in the incidence of non-malaria fevers introduced some bias in these estimates.