Table 1

Bayesian Poisson regression models of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum malaria, Yunnan, China, 1991–2006.

Variable

Plasmodium vivax

Plasmodium falciparum

Relative Risks

Monthly rainfall (10 ml increase)

1.045 (1.044, 1.046)

1.037 (1.034, 1.040)

Monthly maximum temperature (°C increase)

1.047 (1.045, 1.050)

1.053 (1.047, 1.060)

Provincial average temporal trend (annual increase)

0.948 (0.944, 0.952)

0.957 (0.949, 0.965)

Regression of June–September on January–February (log incidence)

Regression slope (Jan–Feb → Jun–Sep)

0.77 (0.70, 0.84)

0.90 (0.75, 1.09)

Variance components (variances on a scale of log incidence)

Spatial random effect

8.74 (7.90, 9.89)

12.66 (10.50, 15.58)

Spatially-smoothed county-level temporal trend

0.08 (0.06, 0.10)

0.01 (0.00, 0.01)

Seasonal effect (January–February)

0.02 (0.01, 0.04)

0.02 (0.01, 0.06)

Overall Intercept

-2.52 (-2.60, -2.45)

-3.24 (-3.46, -3.04)

Results show mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). Summaries of the posterior distributions for the relative risks for each season are presented in the additional materials and the means are plotted in Figure 3.

Clements et al. Malaria Journal 2009 8:180   doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-180