Table 1

ARIMA regression of the imported malaria in the non-endemic provinces on the number of falciparum malaria in the endemic Yunnan and Hainan Provinces (1992–2005)

Model I

Model II

S.E.

p

S.E.

p

Moving average

0.864

0.054

<.0001

0.843

0.057

<.0001

Seasonal moving average

0.651

0.068

<.0001

0.682

0.064

<.0001

Auto-regression

0.273

0.102

0.008

0.207

0.103

0.046

Hainan (lag 0)

0.148

0.120

0.218

Yunnan (lag 0)

0.459

0.141

0.001

AIC

57.7

49.6

Lin et al. Malaria Journal 2009 8:130   doi:10.1186/1475-2875-8-130