Table 3 |
||||
|
Districts in Sri Lanka for which inclusion of a covariate in the mean term of the best (S)ARIMA model tested improved the mean absolute relative error of out of series prediction at forecasting horizons of 1 to 4 months ahead. |
||||
| District |
Horizon (months) |
Lag (months) |
covariate |
Improvement (%) |
|
|
||||
| Badulla |
4 |
4 |
rainy day index, with a separate coefficient for each calendar month |
6.5 |
| Gampaha |
3 |
4 |
logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm) |
3.8 |
| Gampaha |
4 |
4 |
logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm) |
4.5 |
| Mannar |
1 |
2 |
logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm) |
5.2 |
| Moneragala |
2 |
2 |
monthly rainfall factored into quintiles |
4.1 |
| Moneragala |
2 |
3 |
rainy day index |
4.6 |
| Moneragala |
3 |
3 |
rainy day index |
3.2 |
| Mullaitivu |
1 |
1 |
monthly rainfall factored into quintiles |
2.6 |
| logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm), with a separate |
||||
| Ratnapura |
3 |
4 |
coefficient for each calendar month |
3.9 |
| logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm), with a separate |
||||
| Ratnapura |
4 |
4 |
coefficient for each calendar month |
3.6 |
| logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm), with a separate |
||||
| Trincomalee |
2 |
2 |
coefficient for each calendar month |
8.4 |
| logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm), with a separate |
||||
| Trincomalee |
3 |
3 |
coefficient for each calendar month |
9.2 |
| Vavuniya |
4 |
4 |
logarithmically transformed total monthly rainfall (mm) |
2.5 |
|
|
||||
|
Briët et al. Malaria Journal 2008 7:76 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-76 |
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