Table 3 |
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Sensitivity Analysis – Impact of varying major assumptions on gross and net costs per malaria case averted |
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| Variable |
Change |
Impact on gross cost per malaria case averted |
Impact on net cost/savings per malaria case averted |
|
|
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| Attribution of shared campaign costs |
All shared costs borne by measles component. |
Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.96 USD. |
Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.83 USD. |
| Attribution of shared campaign costs |
All shared costs borne by malaria component. |
Increase from 4.40 USD to 4.83 USD. |
Increase from 3.26 USD to 3.69 USD. |
| Discount Rate |
Decrease from 5% to 3% |
Minimal decrease from 4.40 USD to 4.39 USD. |
Minimal decrease from 3.26 USD to 3.25 USD. |
| Discount Rate |
Increase from 5% to 7% |
Minimal increase from 4.40 USD to 4.41 USD. |
Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.27 USD. |
| Lifetime of vehicles |
From 8 and 10 years (depending on model) to 5 years |
No change. |
Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.27 USD. |
| Exchange Rate |
From 1/12/2004 to 1/10/2004 |
Minimal increase from 4.40 USD to 4.41 USD. |
Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.28 USD. |
| Exchange Rate |
From 1/12/2004 to 1/1/2005 |
Minimal increase from 4.40 USD to 4.43 USD. |
Minimal increase from 3.26 USD to 3.30 USD. |
| Price of LLITN |
10% increase |
Increase from 4.40 USD to 4.72 USD. |
Increase from 3.26 USD to 3.58 USD. |
| 10% decrease |
Decrease from 4.40 USD to 4.08 USD. |
Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.94 USD. |
|
| Duration of usage of LLITN |
From 3 years to 2 years |
Increase from 4.40 USD to 6.60 USD. |
Increase from 3.26 USD to 5.46 USD. |
| From 3 years to 4 years |
Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.30 USD. |
Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.16 USD. |
|
| Usage of LLITN among < 5 year old children |
From current ratio of 54% in Togo to higher rates used in Cochrane review (70%) |
Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.39 USD. |
Decrease from 3.26 USD to 2.25 USD. |
| Increase in transmission |
From incidence of 1,209 per 1,000 p.a. to 1,727 per 1,000 p.a. |
Decrease from 4.40 USD to 3.08 USD. |
Decrease from 3.26 USD to 1.94 USD. |
| Decrease in transmission |
From incidence of 1,209 per 1,000 p.a. to 237 per 1,000 p.a. |
Increase from 4.40 USD to 22.43 USD. |
Increase from 3.26 USD to 21.29 USD. |
| Percentage of febrile children accessing public health facilities |
From 30% to 10% |
No change by definition. |
Increase from 3.26 USD to 4.02 USD. |
| From 30% to 100% |
No change by definition. |
Decrease from 3.26 USD to 0.61 USD. |
|
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Mueller et al. Malaria Journal 2008 7:73 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-73 |
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