Table 2 |
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|
Sensitivity analysis variables and outcomes |
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|
Variable |
Baseline value |
Revised values in sensitivity analysis |
Justification |
Impact on cost per child per year (Baseline: US$1.88) |
Impact on Cost effectiveness |
|
|
|
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|
Cost per case of anaemia averted (Baseline: US$ 29.84) |
Cost per case of parasitaemia averted (Baseline: US$ 5.36) |
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|
|
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|
SP Price |
US$ 0.08 per dose |
200% |
Drug price and brand are liable to change over time and across settings |
US$ 1.61 US$ 2.30 |
US$ 25.56 US$ 36.51 |
US$ 4.59 US$ 6.55 |
|
AQ Price |
US$ 0.12 per dose |
50% 200% |
As above |
US$ 1.55 US$ 2.54 |
US$ 24.60 US$ 40.32 |
US$ 4.2 US$ 7.24 |
|
Drug Wastage |
10% |
0% 20% |
Variations in expert opinion & literature |
US$ 1.80 US$ 1.95 |
US$ 28.57 US$ 30.95 |
US$ 5.13 US$ 5.56 |
|
Exchange rate |
US$ 1= Kes 67.81 |
US$ 1 = Kes 74.5 US$ 1 = Kes 67.1 |
Rate over 2006, and highest and lowest 2006 rates |
US$ 1.78 US$ 2.13 |
US$ 28.25 US$ 33.81 |
US$ 5.07 US$ 6.07 |
|
Discount rate |
5% |
3% – 7% |
5% is standard practice, with 3–7% used occasionally |
Negligible change |
Negligible change |
Negligible change |
|
Change in wages |
2006 |
+ 20% |
Salaries levels liable to change. 20% is a realistic change in next few years |
US$ 1.96 |
US$ 31.11 |
US$ 5.58 |
|
Effectiveness: reduction in % anaemia |
50% |
10% 30% |
Effectiveness may vary in different settings and when implemented outside of an efficacy trial |
Not applicable |
US$ 149.21 US$ 49.74 |
Not applicable |
|
Effectiveness: reduction in % parasitaemia |
88% |
40% 60% |
As above |
Not applicable |
Not applicable |
US$ 11.84 US$ 7.89 |
|
Baseline % anaemia in Reduction in % parasitaemia |
12.6% |
30% 50% |
Background nutritional levels vary between settings |
Not applicable |
US$ 12.53 US$ 7.52 |
Not applicable |
|
Frequency of delivery |
Three times a year |
Twice a year |
Yearly distribution as in efficacy trial versus seasonal distribution |
US$ 1.42 |
Not applicable |
Not applicable |
|
Drug Choice |
SP/AQ |
SP alone DP |
Current drug regime versus alternative drug regime currently under investigation |
US$ 1.19. US$ 4.50 |
Not applicable |
Not applicable |
|
|
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|
Temperley et al. Malaria Journal 2008 7:196 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-196 |
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