Figure 1.

Model fit and predictions. The vertical scale corresponds to fitted values of E(h_ij) for the lines, and the observed proportions for the data points. The horizontal scale corresponds to the shrinkage estimates of e_t(i) for the Poisson and negative binomial models (assuming competition), and to the original untransformed e values for the models where this quantity is assumed known. Note that a few points are superimposed.