Table 1 |
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|
ARIMA regression of the logarithmic monthly malaria incidence (1971–1999) on the weather factors in Mengla, China |
||||||
| Model I |
Model II |
|||||
|
|
||||||
| β |
S.E. |
p |
β |
S.E. |
p |
|
|
|
||||||
| Moving average |
0.520 |
0.049 |
<.0001 |
0.517 |
0.049 |
<.0001 |
| Seasonal moving average |
0.799 |
0.035 |
<.0001 |
0.795 |
0.035 |
<.0001 |
| Auto-regression |
-0.165 |
0.057 |
0.004 |
-0.167 |
0.057 |
0.004 |
| Humidity (lag 4) |
-0.003 |
0.005 |
0.531 |
|||
| Rainfall (lag 4) |
-0.0001 |
0.0001 |
0.478 |
|||
| T_max (lag 4) |
0.012 |
0.010 |
0.212 |
0.018 |
0.008 |
0.021 |
| T_min (lag 1) |
0.032 |
0.010 |
0.002 |
0.032 |
0.010 |
0.002 |
| T_min (lag 2) |
0.027 |
0.010 |
0.008 |
0.028 |
0.010 |
0.006 |
| Fog frequency (lag 7) |
0.004 |
0.002 |
0.020 |
0.004 |
0.002 |
0.021 |
| AIC |
-202.2 |
-204.8 |
||||
|
|
||||||
|
Tian et al. Malaria Journal 2008 7:110 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-110 |
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