Modelling the impact of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria on selection pressure for drug resistance

Neal Alexander¹ , Colin Sutherland¹ , Cally Roper¹ , Badara Cissé¹^,2 and David Schellenberg¹

¹Department of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK

²Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UR 077, Dakar, Sénégal

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Malaria Journal 2007, 6:9doi:10.1186/1475-2875-6-9


Published:	22 January 2007

Abstract

Background

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) is a promising intervention for malaria control, although there are concerns about its impact on drug resistance.

Methods

The key model inputs are age-specific values for a) baseline anti-malarial dosing rate, b) parasite prevalence, and c) proportion of those treated with anti-malarials (outside IPT) who are infected. These are used to estimate the immediate effect of IPT on the genetic coefficient of selection (s). The scenarios modelled were year round IPT to infants in rural southern Tanzania, and three doses at monthly intervals of seasonal IPT in Senegal.

Results

In the simulated Tanzanian setting, the model suggests a high selection pressure for drug resistance, but that IPTi would only increase this by a small amount (4.4%). The percent change in s is larger if parasites are more concentrated in infants, or if baseline drug dosing is less common or less specific. If children aged up to five years are included in the Tanzanian scenario then the predicted increase in s rises to 31%. The Senegalese seasonal IPT scenario, in children up to five years, results in a predicted increase in s of 16%.

Conclusion

There is a risk that the useful life of drugs will be shortened if IPT is implemented over a wide childhood age range. On the other hand, IPT delivered only to infants is unlikely to appreciably shorten the useful life of the drug used.