Table 1

Results of various multiple linear regression analyses of temperature and rainfall on log malaria incidence in Kagera region^a.

Climate season

Season 1 (Aug-Jan)

Season 2 (Feb-Jul)

Malaria season

Epidemic year

n

model

Total rainfall

Max. temp.

Total rainfall

Max. temp.

BIC score

R-squared

Adjusted R-squared

Overall p-value

Comments

Season 1 (Oct-Mar)

1998

9

1

p = 0.003

n/a

n/a

n/a

19.17

0.73

0.70

p = 0.003

Season 1 (Oct-Mar)

1998

9

2

n/a

p = 0.12

n/a

n/a

27.75

0.31

0.21

p = 0.12

Season 1 (Oct-Mar)

1998

8

A1

p = 0.71

n/a

n/a

n/a

15.24

0.02

-0.15

p = 0.77

Excluding epidemic year 1998

Season 1 (Oct-Mar)

1998

8

A2

n/a

p = 0.14

n/a

n/a

12.27

0.32

0.21

p = 0.14

Excluding epidemic year 1998

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

9

3

n/a

n/a

p = 0.28

n/a

29.44

0.17

0.05

p = 0.28

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

9

4

n/a

p = 0.04

n/a

n/a

25.36

0.47

0.39

p = 0.04

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

9

5

n/a

p = 0.005

p = 0.02

n/a

19.08

0.79

0.72

p = 0.009

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

8

B1

n/a

n/a

p = 0.002

n/a

14.34

0.82

0.79

p = 0.002

Excluding epidemic year 1997

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

8

B2

n/a

n/a

n/a

p = 0.96

28.22

0

-0.17

p = 0.96

Excluding epidemic year 1997

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

8

B3

n/a

p = 0.31

n/a

n/a

26.74

0.17

0.03

p = 0.31

Excluding epidemic year 1997

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

8

B4

n/a

p = 0.03

p = 0.001

n/a

8.4

0.94

0.91

p = 0.001

Excluding epidemic year 1997

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

6

C1

n/a

n/a

p = 0.005

n/a

9.42

0.89

0.86

p = 0.005

Excluding 1997/8/9

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

6

C2

n/a

n/a

n/a

p = 0.54

21.9

0.10

-0.13

p = 0.54

Excluding 1997/8/9

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

6

C3

n/a

p = 0.26

n/a

n/a

20.35

0.30

0.13

p = 0.26

Excluding 1997/8/9

Season 2 (Apr-Sep)

1997

6

C4

n/a

p = 0.07

p = 0.004

n/a

3.86

0.97

0.95

p = 0.005

Excluding 1997/8/9

^a Displayed in the table are the significance levels of each parameter included in the regression model. Each of models 1 to 5 is based on the 1991–1999 period. Models A1 and A2 refer to the first malaria season and were developed by excluding the 1998 epidemic year. The B models refer to the second malaria season and were developed by excluding the 1997 epidemic year. The C models are the same as their B equivalent but were based on the 1991–1996 period only. (n/a) Not calculated

Jones et al. Malaria Journal 2007 6:162   doi:10.1186/1475-2875-6-162