|
Expected malaria incidence by forecasting model and observed monthly malaria notification rates per 100 inhabitants of Karuzi, Burundi, in the derivation period 1997–2001. |
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| Month |
Expected |
Observed |
Month |
Expected |
Observed |
|
|
|||||
| Jan 1997 |
--- |
1.7 |
Jul |
8.5 |
6.9 |
| Feb |
1.4 |
1.6 |
Aug |
6.5 |
4.4 |
| Mar |
3.2 |
1.7 |
Sep |
5.5 |
5.7 |
| Apr |
1.7 |
2.2 |
Oct |
5.5 |
7.6 |
| May |
1.9 |
2.3 |
Nov |
8 |
8.9 |
| Jun |
3.3 |
3.8 |
Dec |
7.9 |
8.1 |
| Jul |
3.6 |
4.9 |
Jan 2000 |
8.2 |
7.9 |
| Aug |
4.9 |
2.1 |
Feb |
7.8 |
6.5 |
| Sep |
1.7 |
1.9 |
Mar |
7.2 |
4.2 |
| Oct |
3.5 |
2.3 |
Apr |
4 |
3.5 |
| Nov |
1.9 |
2.4 |
May |
3.4 |
6.5 |
| Dec |
3.8 |
2.8 |
Jun |
5.2 |
10.4 |
| Jan 1998 |
2.6 |
2.7 |
Jul |
9.3 |
6.8 |
| Feb |
2.2 |
4.1 |
Aug |
6.5 |
5.6 |
| Mar |
5 |
4.1 |
Sep |
5.5 |
5.4 |
| Apr |
3.5 |
4 |
Oct |
4.3 |
9.5 |
| May |
4.2 |
2.3 |
Nov |
7.7 |
41.6 |
| Jun |
1.8 |
2.7 |
Dec |
34.5 |
42.2 |
| Jul |
3.3 |
2.4 |
Jan 2001 |
34.4 |
35.3 |
| Aug |
2.9 |
2.1 |
Feb |
29.4 |
24.4 |
| Sep |
2.7 |
2.8 |
Mar |
21.4 |
25.9 |
| Oct |
3.9 |
3.4 |
Apr |
22.4 |
13.2 |
| Nov |
3 |
4.3 |
May |
12.2 |
11.4 |
| Dec |
4.3 |
4.2 |
Jun |
9.8 |
7.7 |
| Jan 1999 |
5.3 |
4.5 |
Jul |
7.2 |
6.2 |
| Feb |
4.1 |
3.8 |
Aug |
6.6 |
6 |
| Mar |
5 |
4.1 |
Sep |
5.5 |
4.3 |
| Apr |
3.6 |
2.2 |
Oct |
5.2 |
5 |
| May |
2.9 |
5.6 |
Nov |
5.9 |
5.9 |
| Jun |
5.5 |
9.4 |
Dec |
4.8 |
6 |
Gomez-Elipe et al. Malaria Journal 2007 6:129 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-6-129 |
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