Research

Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997–2003

Alberto Gomez-Elipe¹ , Angel Otero¹ , Michel van Herp² and Armando Aguirre-Jaime³

¹  Public Health Department, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, C/Arzobispo Morcillo 2, 28029 Madrid, Spain

²  Department of Epidemiology, Médecins Sans Frontiéres, 94 rue Dupré, 1090 Brussels, Belgium

³  Research Support Service, NS Candelaria University Hospital, Ctra. Gral. del Rosario s/n, 38010 Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Spain

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Malaria Journal 2007, 6:129doi:10.1186/1475-2875-6-129

Published:	24 September 2007

Abstract

Background

The objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics.

Methods

The study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed.

Results

The best forecasting model (R²_adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range ± 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month.

Conclusion

This model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area.