Table 3

Performance characteristics of PCR at different parasite densities relative to expert laboratory microscopy for active surveillance for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax.a

Trophozoites/μl (total positive)
Sensitivity (95% CI)
Specificity (95% CI)
Positive Predictive Value (95% CI)
Negative Predictive Value (95% CI)
Accuracy
J Index




P. falciparum



>5000/μl (14)
100.0% (73.2–100.0)
97.7% (97.4–98.0)
6.7% (3.9–11.3)
100.0% (99.9–100.0)
98%
0.98
>1000/μl (36)
97.2% (83.8–99.9)
98.0% (97.7–98.3)
16.8% (12.1–22.8)
100.0% (99.9–100.0)
98%
0.95
>500/μl (47)
95.7% (84.3–99.3)
98.1% (97.8–98.4)
21.6% (16.4–28.0)
100.0% (99.9–100.0)
98%
0.94
>100/μl (151)
58.3% (50.0–66.2)
98.6% (98.3–98.8)
42.3% (35.6–49.3)
99.2% (99.0–99.4)
98%
0.57
>1/μl (267)
41.6% (35.7–47.8)
98.8% (98.6–99.0)
53.6% (46.6–60.5)
98.1% (97.8–98.4)
97%
0.40



P. vivax



>5000/μl (4)
100.0% (39.6–100.0)
95.5% (95.0–95.9)
1.0% (0.3–2.8)
100.0% (99.9–100.0)
95%
0.95
>1000/μl (15)
100.0% (74.7–100.0)
95.6% (95.2–96.0)
3.8% (2.2–6.1)
100.0% (99.9–100.0)
96%
0.96
>500/μl (20)
100.0% (80.0–100.0)
95.7% (95.2–96.1)
5.1% (3.2–7.9)
100.0% (99.9–100.0)
96%
0.96
>100/μl (96)
71.9% (61.6–80.3)
96.2% (95.8–96.6)
17.6% (14.1–21.9)
99.7% (99.5–99.8)
96%
0.68
>1/μl (387)
35.9% (31.2–40.9)
96.9% (96.5–97.3)
35.8% (31.1–40.8)
97.0% (96.5–97.3)
94%
0.33

a For this analysis we assume that microscopy is the gold standard (i.e., always correct).

Coleman et al. Malaria Journal 2006 5:121   doi:10.1186/1475-2875-5-121