Research
A weather-driven model of malaria transmission
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* Corresponding author: Moshe B Hoshen hoshen@liv.ac.uk
1 Virtual Population Laboratory, Department of Physics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZE, UK
2 Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool, L69 3BX, UK
Malaria Journal 2004, 3:32 doi:10.1186/1475-2875-3-32
Published: 6 September 2004Abstract
Background
Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission.
Methods
This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages.
Results
Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection.
Conclusion
A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.